The Impact of Ongoing War and Maritime Geopolitics on Indian Supply Chain Operations: A Multi-Sectoral Empirical Analysis

The resilience of global supply chains depends on the seamless movement of maritime freight through key shipping corridors. In 2026, escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe, the prolonged Red Sea security crisis, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create an unprecedented supply chain disruption for India.This paper examines the impact of these geopolitical events on five major sectors of the Indian economy: Energy and Petrochemicals, Agriculture and Food Processing, Automobile and Heavy Manufacturing, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), and the Downstream Metal Infrastructure sector. Using a mixed-methods research approach, the study analyses operational data from the past three quarters, including the rise of the Indian crude basket to US$113.57 per barrel, a 48% increase in maritime transit distances via the Cape of Good Hope, a 300% surge in war-risk insurance premiums, and a 40–50% decline in downstream aluminium capacity utilization. The findings indicate that although India's macroeconomic buffers—including 22 operational LPG terminals and flexible refining capacity—have prevented a systemic breakdown, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) continue to face severe margin pressures due to import-parity pricing and localized feedstock shortages. The paper concludes with 11 sector-specific strategic recommendations aimed at transforming India's supply chain from short-term crisis response into a resilient, digitally integrated, and risk-hedged system capable of withstanding future geopolitical disruptions.